Wastewater-based prediction of COVID-19 cases using a random forest algorithm with strain prevalence data: A case study of five municipalities in Latvia.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a rapid and cost-effective method that can detect SARS-CoV-2 genomic components in wastewater and can provide an early warning for possible COVID-19 outbreaks up to one or two weeks in advance. However, the quantitative relationship between the intensity of the epidemic and the possible progression of the pandemic is still unclear, necessitating further research. This study investigates the use of WBE to rapidly monitor the SARS-CoV-2 virus from five municipal wastewater treatment plants in Latvia and forecast cumulative COVID-19 cases two weeks in advance. For this purpose, a real-time quantitative PCR approach was used to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid 1 (N1), nucleocapsid 2 (N2), and E genes in municipal wastewater. The RNA signals in the wastewater were compared to the reported COVID-19 cases, and the strain prevalence data of the SARS-CoV-2 virus were identified by targeted sequencing of receptor binding domain (RBD) and furin cleavage site (FCS) regions employing next-generation sequencing technology. The model methodology for a linear model and a random forest was designed and carried out to ascertain the correlation between the cumulative cases, strain prevalence data, and RNA concentration in the wastewater to predict the COVID-19 outbreak and its scale. Additionally, the factors that impact the model prediction accuracy for COVID-19 were investigated and compared between linear and random forest models. The results of cross-validated model metrics showed that the random forest model is more effective in predicting the cumulative COVID-19 cases two weeks in advance when strain prevalence data are included. The results from this research help inform WBE and public health recommendations by providing valuable insights into the impact of environmental exposures on health outcomes.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among children in Latvia: A cross-sectional study.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a major global health concern. In contrast to adults, the course of the disease has been observed to be mild or even asymptomatic in children. It is therefore both clinically and epidemiologically important to measure the seroprevalence in children and adolescents to discern the overall morbidity of the disease and to compare these findings with similar data collected globally. We conducted a cross-sectional study between March and July of 2022 at the Children Clinical University Hospital in Riga, Latvia, to evaluate the seroprevalence of antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Participants aged 0 to 18 years were enrolled during hospitalization for reasons other than COVID-19. The levels of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and nucleocapsid antibodies were measured in blood samples. The possibility of transplacental antibody transport was evaluated by directly interviewing the mothers of participants aged 18 months and younger. Various demographic and epidemiological risk factors and their association with seroprevalence were analyzed. Positive SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibodies were designated the main criterion for seropositivity. Of 200 enrolled children, 173 were found to be seropositive, resulting in an overall seroprevalence of 86.5%. The highest seroprevalence was detected in children and adolescents aged 12 to 18 years. With the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic, the seroprevalence in children has increased significantly. We found that almost 1-third of seropositive children in our study population were unaware of being previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 due to an asymptomatic course of the disease. Our study findings pertaining to high seropositivity among children and adolescents might be beneficial for public authorities to adapt epidemiological strategies and prevention measures. The high seroprevalence rate reported here and in many other populations around the world suggests that COVID-19 will likely become one of the many seasonal viral infections.

Women's perspectives on the quality of maternal and newborn care in childbirth during the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia: Results from the IMAgiNE EURO study on 40 WHO standards-based quality measures.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate women's perspectives on the quality of maternal and newborn care (QMNC) around the time of childbirth during the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia, comparing the years 2020 and 2021, among women who went into labor or had a prelabor cesarean. METHODS: Women giving birth in healthcare facilities in Latvia from March 1, 2020, to October 28, 2021, answered an online questionnaire including 40 WHO standards-based quality measures. Descriptive and multivariate quantile regression analyses were performed to compare QMNC in 2020 and 2021. RESULTS: 2079 women were included in the analysis: 1860 women who went into labor (group 1) and 219 with prelabor cesarean (group 2). Among group 1, 66.4% (n = 99/149) of women received fundal pressure in an instrumental vaginal birth, 43.5% (n = 810) lacked involvement in choices, 17.4% (n = 317) reported suffering abuse, 32.7% (n = 609) reported inadequate breastfeeding support while 5.2% (n = 96) lack of early breastfeeding. A significant reduction in QMNC due to the COVID-19 pandemic was reported by 29.5% (n = 219) and 25.0% (n = 270) of respondents in 2020 and 2021, respectively (P = 0.045). Multivariate analyses highlighted a significantly lower QMNC index for 2020 compared with 2021 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: This first study investigating QMNC in Latvia showed significant gaps in QMNC perceived by respondents, with slightly better results in 2021. Appropriate healthcare strategies to improve health care for women and newborns in Latvia are required. CLINICALTRIALS: gov Identifier:NCT04847336.

A mixed-method study on the provision of remote consultations for non-communicable disease patients during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia: lessons for the future.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged the ability of healthcare systems to ensure the continuity of health services for patients with non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The issue of remote consultations has emerged. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, remote consultations were not routinely provided or covered by public health funding in Latvia. This study aimed to describe the dynamics of consultations and the volume of remote consultations provided for patients with particular NCD and explore clinicians' experiences of providing remote consultations during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia. METHODS: A mixed-method study focusing on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia in Spring 2020 was conducted. Quantitative data from the National Health Services were analysed to assess the dynamics of consultations for patients with selected NCDs. Qualitative data were collected through 34 semi-structured interviews with general practitioners (GPs) and specialists and were analysed using an inductive thematic analysis. Purposive maximum variation sampling was used for participant selection. RESULTS: During the period with the strongest restrictions of scheduled on-site consultations, a decrease in the total number of consultations was observed for a variety of NCDs. A significant proportion of consultations in this period were provided remotely. GPs provided approximately one-third of cancer-related consultations and almost half of consultations for the other selected conditions remotely. Among specialists, endocrinologists had the highest proportion of remote consultations (up to 72.0%), while urologists had the lowest (16.4%). Thematic analysis of the semi-structured interviews revealed five themes: 1) Adjusting in a time of confusion and fear, 2) Remote consultations: safety versus availability, 3) Sacrifice and loss of privacy, 4) Advantages and disadvantages of communication technologies, and 5) Different form of communication and a health literacy challenge. CONCLUSIONS: During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia, disruptions to health care services decreased the total number of consultations for patients with NCDs provided by both GPs and specialists. In this period, remote consultations proved to be an important instrument for ensuring the continuity of health care for patients with NCDs, and the necessity to develop a well-designed system for telemedicine in Latvia was highlighted.

Determinants of Anxiety in the General Latvian Population During the COVID-19 State of Emergency.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic and its restrictive public health measures have seriously affected mental health of society. Social, psychological, and health-related factors have been linked to anxiety in the general population. Aim: We investigate the association of various sociopsychological and health-related determinants of anxiety and identify the predicting factors for anxiety in the general population during the COVID-19 state of emergency from in Latvia. Methods: We conducted an online survey using a randomized stratified sample of the general adult population in July 2020 for 3 weeks. Anxiety symptoms were measured using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI-S). Sociodemographic, health-related, sociopsychological characteristics and suicidality were identified using the structured questionnaire. The statistical analysis included Pearson's chi-square test, post hoc analysis, and binomial logistic regression. Results: The weighted study sample included 2,608 participants. The mean STAY-S score of the total sample was 22.88 ± 12.25. In the total sample, 15.2% (n = 398) of participants were classified as having anxiety. The odds ratio (OR) of having anxiety was higher in females (OR = 2.44; 95% CI 1.75-3.33) and people who had experienced mental health problems in the past (OR = 1.45; 95% CI 1.03-2.04), had suicide attempt in the past (OR = 1.68; 95% CI 1.08-2.59), were worried about their health status due to COVID-19 (OR = 1.64; 95% CI 1.36-1.16), were worried about stigmatization from others if infected with COVID-19 (OR = 1.18; 95% CI 1.03-1.35), were worried about information regarding COVID-19 from the Internet (OR = 1.24; 95% CI 1.08-1.43), persons who were lonely (OR = 1.90; 95% CI 1.54-2.34), and persons with negative problem orientation (OR = 1.26; 95% CI 1.06-1.51). Protective factors were identified as having good self-rated general health (OR = 0.68, 95 % CI 0.58-0.81), maintaining a daily routine (OR = 0.74, 95 % CI 0.61-0.90), having financial stability (OR = 0.66, 95 % CI 0.55-0.79), and having good psychological resilience (OR = 0.90, 95 % CI 0.87-0.94). Conclusions: This is the first study to report a prevalence of anxiety in the general population of Latvia. Certain factors that predict anxiety, as well as protective factors were identified.

Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia: a population-level analysis of all-cause and noncommunicable disease deaths in 2020.

BACKGROUND: Age-standardised noncommunicable disease (NCD) mortality and the proportion of the elderly population in Latvia are high, while public health and health care systems are underresourced. The emerging COVID-19 pandemic raised concerns about its detrimental impact on all-cause and noncommunicable disease mortality in Latvia. We estimated the timing and number of excess all-cause and cause-specific deaths in 2020 in Latvia due to COVID-19 and selected noncommunicable diseases. METHODS: A time series analysis of all-cause and cause-specific weekly mortality from COVID-19, circulatory diseases, malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, and chronic lower respiratory diseases from the National Causes of Death Database from 2015 to 2020 was used by applying generalised additive modelling (GAM) and joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: Between weeks 14 and 52 (from 1 April to 29 December) of 2020, a total of 3111 excess deaths (95% PI 1339 - 4832) were estimated in Latvia, resulting in 163.77 excess deaths per 100 000. Since September 30, with the outbreak of the second COVID-19 wave, 55% of all excess deaths have occurred. Altogether, COVID-19-related deaths accounted for only 28% of the estimated all-cause excess deaths. A significant increase in excess mortality was estimated for circulatory diseases (68.91 excess deaths per 100 000). Ischemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease were listed as the underlying cause in almost 60% of COVID-19-contributing deaths. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality and mortality from circulatory diseases significantly increased in Latvia during the first pandemic year. All-cause excess mortality substantially exceeded reported COVID-19-related deaths, implying COVID-19-related mortality during was significantly underestimated. Increasing mortality from circulatory diseases suggests a negative cumulative effect of COVID-19 exposure and reduced access to healthcare services for NCD patients.

Consumption trends of pharmaceuticals and psychoactive drugs in Latvia determined by the analysis of wastewater.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) was applied to evaluate seasonal variations of the consumption of pharmaceuticals (i.e. antibiotics, NSAIDs, antiepileptics, antihypertensives and others), caffeine, alcohol and nicotine in Latvia throughout 2021. In addition, weekly variation of caffeine, nicotine and alcohol consumption was investigated. Pronounced seasonality was observed in the consumption of antibiotics and decongestants, as well as caffeine, nicotine and alcohol. Correlation with COVID-19 statistics was observed in the case of macrolide antibiotics and antiasthmatic salbutamol. Comparison of the estimated consumption values obtained using the WBE approach and the statistics revealed that the majority of compounds data are in good agreement except angiotensin II receptor blocker group antihypertensives where the most overestimated consumption values were observed.

COVID-19 Lessons and Post-pandemic Recovery: A Case of Latvia.

The decision of EU and the response of the national governments to COVID-19 crisis provide the basis for returning "back to normal". A key challenge is the transition to economic recovery in the presence of the ongoing COVID-19 risk. Adequate policy mix and forward-looking actions of the public institutions are crucial to mitigate the devastating impact of the crisis and to preserve growth. Governments need to facilitate positive changes in the labor market, adjust the macroeconomic and fiscal regimes, and mitigate the post-crisis "fatigue" of societies. The turmoil of the EU economy is symmetrical, as the pandemic has affected all EU Member States, but the impact of the pandemic varies considerably from one country to another, as does their ability to absorb the economic crisis. Also, variation in the vaccination performance is partly due to different institutional characteristics across countries. Small countries are more vulnerable to external economic shocks; however, they can increase their resilience by efficient governance and social response. Extraordinary pandemic crisis can be seen as a stress test for the small and open Latvian economy, and it is worth analyzing the lessons that Latvia had learned and its future prospects. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the economic and social consequences of the ongoing crisis in Latvia, assess the effectiveness of the response of the government to the crisis, analyse people's perceptions, and to identify the future scenarios. The authors applied a special theoretical framework for the assessment of the effectiveness of institutions. Institutional analysis of crises response by the Latvian government reveals that the government managed to avoid serious functional disruptions; however, it failed to show convincing ability to learn by doing. The authors also provide a comprehensive analysis of the macroeconomic trends of the "COVID-sick" Latvian economy and conclude that future-oriented solutions relate to international competitiveness and that the key factor of competitiveness is a productivity renaissance. The pandemic crisis has fostered the state support for healthcare, which in Latvia for decades has been underfinanced. The right choice of fiscal instruments is crucial to accelerate the economic recovery and better healthcare. Research is based on the macroeconomic assessment and survey-based analysis. The comparison of statistically justified findings with the public perception helps formulate conclusions on the future scenarios and policies.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater and importance of population size assessment in smaller cities: An exploratory case study from two municipalities in Latvia.

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has regained global importance during the COVID-19 pandemic. The mobility of people and other factors, such as precipitation and irregular inflow of industrial wastewater, are complicating the estimation of the disease prevalence through WBE, which is crucial for proper crisis management. These estimations are particularly challenging in urban areas with moderate or low numbers of inhabitants in situations where movement restrictions are not adopted (as in the case of Latvia) because residents of smaller municipalities tend to be more mobile and less strict in following the rules and measures of disease containment. Thus, population movement can influence the outcome of WBE measurements significantly and may not reflect the actual epidemiological situation in the respective area. Here, we demonstrate that by combining the data of detected SARS-CoV-2 RNA copy number, 5-hydroxyindoleacetic acid (5-HIAA) analyses in wastewater and mobile call detail records it was possible to provide an accurate assessment of the COVID-19 epidemiological situation in towns that are small (COVID-19 28-day cumulative incidence r = 0.609 and 35-day cumulative incidence r = 0.89, p < 0.05) and medium-sized towns (COVID-19 21-day cumulative incidence r = 0.997, 28-day cumulative incidence r = 0.98 and 35-day cumulative incidence r = 0.997, p < 0.05). This is the first study demonstrating WBE for monitoring COVID-19 outbreaks in Latvia. We demonstrate that the application of population size estimation measurements such as total 5-HIAA and call detail record data improve the accuracy of the WBE approach.

Mental Health and Associated Demographic and Occupational Factors among Health Care Workers during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Latvia.

Background and Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively impacted the health care system. Front-line health care workers (HCWs) are at a higher risk of mental health adverse outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate the frequency of the symptoms of depression and anxiety and associated demographic and occupational factors among front-line HCWs in Latvia. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional quantitative study was performed in a population of HCWs during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia. The participants were interviewed between 28 April 2020 and 2 June 2020. Answers from 864 HCWs were obtained. The participants reported their demographics, work-related information, contacts with COVID-19-positive patients and completed two standardised questionnaires that assessed the symptoms of anxiety (GAD-7) and depression (PHQ-9). The gathered data were analysed by a chi-squared test and binary logistic regression. The data analysis was performed using SPSS v25. Results: A total of 209 (24.8%) participants had depression symptoms and 145 (17.2%) had anxiety symptoms. Health care workers older than 50 had a lower risk of both depression (OR 0.422 (95% CI, 0.262-0.680)) and anxiety (OR 0.468 (95% CI, 0.270-0.813)). General practitioners had more frequent symptoms of depression and anxiety than participants who worked at hospitals (32.8% (n = 63) versus 19.4% (n = 73) and 27.1% (n = 52) versus 10.3% (n = 39), respectively (p = 0.037; p < 0.000)). Working more than 48 h during the week was associated with a higher risk of depression (OR 2.222 (95% CI, 1.315-3.753)) and anxiety (OR 2.416 (95% CI, 1.272-4.586)). Conclusions: The vulnerability of the health care system before the COVID-19 pandemic led to significant mental health adverse outcomes of HCWs during the COVID-19 pandemic in Latvia. A further cohort study is needed to evaluate the dynamics of mental health and other predisposing factors of HCWs.

Lessons learned from the Baltic countries' response to the first wave of COVID-19.

The Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania shared a similar response to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using the information available on the COVID-19 Health System Response Monitor platform, this article analyzed measures taken to prevent transmission, ensure capacity, provide essential services, finance the health system, and coordinate their governance approaches. All three countries used a highly centralized approach and implemented restrictive measures relatively early, with a state of emergency declared with fewer than 30 reported cases in each country. Due to initially low COVID-19 incidence, the countries built up their capacities for testing, contact tracing, and infrastructure, without a major stress test to the health system throughout the spring and summer of 2020, yet issues with accessing routine health care services had already started manifesting themselves. The countries in the Baltic region entered the pandemic with a precarious starting point, particularly due to smaller operational budgets and health workforce shortages, which may have contributed to their escalated response aiming to prevent transmission during the first wave. Subsequent waves, however, were much more damaging. This article focuses on early responses to the pandemic in the Baltic states highlighting measures taken to prevent virus transmission in the face of major uncertainties.

Challenges for Workplace Risk Assessment in Home Offices-Results from a Qualitative Descriptive Study on Working Life during the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Latvia.

Epidemiological restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic have raised legal and practical questions related to the provision of workplace risk assessment in home offices of teleworkers. The objective of this qualitative study was to analyze practical experience of employers and occupational safety and health experts performing workplace risk assessment in Latvia during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings suggest that employers have not sufficiently implemented their legal obligations related to workplace risk assessment which can result in an increased number of physical and mental health problems of teleworkers in the short term and in the future. Work from home has shown how different working conditions can be for the same type of work (office work); therefore, the promotion of personalized workplace risk assessment should be encouraged. Even if virtual workplace visits using photos and videos are not the traditional way the workplace risk assessment should be done, it is effective; workers who report that their employers assessed their working conditions report fewer health effects. The experience of workers in participation in workplace risk assessment for telework might change the level and role of worker participation in the management of health and safety hazards at work in general.

Factors related to depression, distress, and self-reported changes in anxiety, depression, and suicidal thoughts during the COVID-19 state of emergency in Latvia.

PURPOSE: Evidence suggests that the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic might have deleterious effects on the population's mental health and psychiatric outcomes. We examined the prevalence of depression, distress, and suicidal thoughts and their association with social and economic factors during the state of emergency in a nationwide representative sample of the general population in Latvia. MATERIALS AND METHOD: An online survey was conducted using a randomized stratified sample of the general adult population in July 2020 for 3 weeks. Distress, depression, suicidal thoughts, and self-reported changes in mental health were identified using a structured questionnaire. The statistical analysis included chi-square tests, analyses of variance, and multivariate forward-stepwise linear regressions. RESULTS: The study sample included 2608 respondents. Clinical depression was present in 5.75% and distress in 7.82%. Suicidal thoughts increased in 13.30% of those with a history of clinical depression, and 27.05% of those with a history of suicidal attempts. The variables that were associated with increases in self-reported anxiety, depressive thoughts, suicidal ideation, and being currently depressed/distressed included lower general health, increased fears of contracting COVID-19 or having family members contract it and die, history of suicidality, increased family conflicts, decreased religiosity, caring for a vulnerable person. Protective factors included positive changes in family relationships and economic situation, maintaining one's basic routine, and having more people living in the household. CONCLUSIONS: Further research and interventions should focus specifically on these factors. The study's findings can help to develop future strategies for management of psychological support for different groups in general population.

Lower ST-elevation myocardial infarction incidence during COVID-19 epidemic in Northern Europe.

We compared the ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) incidence during COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020) to January-February 2020 and to same time period in earlier years 2017-2019 in five Nordic-Baltic tertiary centers. During 2017-2019, there were no marked differences in STEMI incidence between January, February and March. During 2020, there was an average drop of 32% in STEMI incidence in March. The isolation measures may decrease the risk for respiratory virus infection and contribute to the lower STEMI incidence and that we might benefit from firmer suggestions on hand hygiene and social distancing during flu season at least among high-risk individuals.